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Prediction for CME (2026-06-09T16:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-09T16:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46749/-1
CME Note: The source of this event is a filament eruption seen originating from the vicinity of Active Region 14463 (N17E15) beginning at approximately 2026-06-09T15:46Z. Filament material can be seen in SDO AIA, STEREO A EUVI and GOES SUVI 304. A wide region of dimming, field line opening and a slight EUV wave is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211, STEREO A EUVI 195 and GOES SUVI 284 appearing to exhibit heavy Eastern deflection, possibly due to the eruptions proximity to a coronal hole.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60610
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Jun 2026, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jun 2026  10CM FLUX: 129 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jun 2026  10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jun 2026  10CM FLUX: 129 / AP: 037


Coronal mass ejections: ...A slow CME
(SIDC CME 673) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 from around 16:36 UTC on
June 9, directed primarily towards the northeast from Earth's perspective.
It was associated with a filament eruption observed from around 15:00 UTC
on June 9 in the vicinity of SIDC Sunspot Group 825 (NOAA Active Region
4463), together with coronal dimming. Preliminary analysis suggests that a
glancing blow at Earth around June 14 cannot be excluded. Further analysis
is ongoing to better estimate the potential impact...

Lead Time: 61.05 hour(s)
Difference: -12.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-10T20:48Z

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